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How Many People Experience Homelessness?
Many people call or write the National Coalition for the Homeless to ask
about the number of homeless people in the United States. There is no
easy answer to this question, and in fact, the question itself is misleading.
In most cases, homelessness is a temporary circumstance -- not a permanent
condition. A more appropriate measure of the magnitude of homelessness
is therefore the number of people who experience homelessness over time,
not the number of "homeless people."
Studies
of homelessness are complicated by problems of definitions and methodology.
This fact sheet describes definitions of homelessness, methodologies for
counting homeless people, recent estimates of homelessness, and estimates
of the increase in homelessness over the past two decades. Additional
resources for further study are also provided.
DEFINITIONS
As a result of methodological and financial constraints, most studies
are limited to counting people who are literally homeless -- that is,
in shelters or on the streets. While this approach may yield useful information
about the number of people who use services such as shelters and soup
kitchens, or who are easy to locate on the street, it can result in underestimates
of homelessness. Many people who lack a stable, permanent residence have
few shelter options because shelters are filled to capacity or are unavailable.
A recent study of 30 U.S. cities found that in 1998, 26% of all requests
for emergency shelter went unmet due to lack of resources (U.S. Conference
of Mayors, 1998). In addition, a review of homelessness in 50 cities found
that in virtually every city, the city's official estimated number of
homeless people greatly exceeded the number of emergency shelter and transitional
housing spaces (National Law Center on Homelessness and Poverty, 1999).
Moreover, there are few or no shelters in rural areas of the United States,
despite significant levels of homelessness (Aron and Fitchen, 1996). As
a result of these and other factors, many people who lack permanent housing
are forced to live with relatives and friends in crowded, temporary arrangements.
People living in unstable housing arrangements who lack a permanent place
to stay are experiencing a kind of homelessness, but because they are
not "literally homeless," they will not be counted.
METHODOLOGY
Researchers use different methods to measure homelessness. One method
attempts to count all the people who are literally homeless on a given
day or during a given week (point-in-time counts). A second method of
counting homeless people examines the number of people who are homeless
over a given period of time (period prevalence counts).
Choosing
between point-in-time counts and period-prevalence counts has significant
implications for understanding the magnitude and dynamics of homelessness.
The high turnover in the homeless population documented by recent studies
(see below) suggests that many more people experience homelessness than
previously thought, and that most of these people do not remain homeless.
Because point-in-time studies give just a "snapshot" picture
of homelessness, they only count those who are homeless at a particular
time. Over time, however, some people will find housing and escape homelessness
while new people will lose housing and become homeless. Systemic social
and economic factors (prolonged unemployment or sudden loss of a job,
lack of affordable housing, domestic violence, etc.) are frequently responsible
for these episodes of homelessness. Point-in-time studies do not accurately
identify these intermittently homeless people, and therefore tend to overestimate
the proportion of people who are chronically homeless -- particularly
those who suffer from severe mental illness and/or addiction disorders
and who therefore have a much harder time escaping homelessness and finding
permanent housing. For these reasons, point-in-time counts are often criticized
as misrepresenting the magnitude and nature of homelessness.
There
is another important methodological issue that should be considered. Regardless
of the time period over which the study was conducted, many people will
not be counted because they are not in places researchers can easily find.
This group of people, often referred to as "the unsheltered"
or "hidden" homeless, frequently stay in automobiles, camp grounds,
or other places that researchers cannot effectively search. For instance,
a national study of formerly homeless people found that the most common
places people who had been literally homeless stayed were vehicles (59.2%)
and makeshift housing, such as tents, boxes, caves, or boxcars (24.6%)
(Link et al., 1995). This suggests that homeless counts may miss significant
numbers of people who are literally homeless, as well as those living
in doubled-up situations.
NATIONAL ESTIMATES OF HOMELESSNESS
There are at least four widely used national estimates of homelessness.
Many are dated, or based on dated information. For all of the reasons
discussed above, none of these estimates represents "how many people
are homeless."
500,000 - 600,000 (1988)
The
most widely cited example of a point-in-time estimate is the approximately
500,000-600,000 homeless people found in shelters, eating at soup kitchens,
or congregating on the street during one week in 1988 (Burt and Cohen,
1989).
700,000+/night; 2 million/year (1999)
The
500,000-600,000 estimate is sometimes updated by using a projected rate
of increase of 5% a year to produce an estimate of over 700,000 people
homeless on any given night, and up to 2 million people who experience
homelessness during one year (National Law Center on Homelessness and
Poverty, 1999).
Seven million (1985-1990)
In
1990, a national telephone survey identified formerly homeless people
and produced life-time and five-year prevalence estimates of homelessness.
Seven percent of the respondents reported that they had been literally
homeless at some point in their lives, and three percent reported being
homeless at some point between 1985-1990 (Link et al.,1994). The Clinton
Administration's Priority Home! The Federal Plan to Break the Cycle of
Homelessness uses this data, corrected to include children, to estimate
that between 4.95 million to 9.32 million people (with a mid-point of
7 million) experienced homelessness in the latter half of the 1980s.
A
second study was undertaken in 1994 to refine the analysis with more explicit
definitions and detailed information. This study found that 6.5% (12 million
adults nationwide) of the respondents had been literally homeless at some
point in their lives, and that 3.6% (6.6 million adults nationwide) of
the respondents had experienced homelessness (literal or doubled up) between
1989-1994 (Link et al., 1995). Thus, it appears that 12 million of the
adult residents of the U.S. have been literally homeless at some point
in their lives.
Three percent (1994)
Dennis
Culhane's study of turnover rates in shelters in New York City and Philadelphia
is another example of a period prevalence count. This study revealed that
3% of Philadelphia's population used the public shelter system between
1990 and 1992, and that in New York, 3% of the population received shelter
between 1988-1992 (Culhane et al., 1994). The Culhane study also found
that in New York City, a single shelter bed accomodates four different
people in the course of a year; in Philadelphia, each bed accomodates
six different persons per year. Because this study did not include persons
in privately funded shelters or on the streets, the findings underestimate
homelessness in both cities.
A
study by Martha Burt compared these rates with data from seven other jurisdictions
(Burt, 1994). The comparison showed that the New York City and Philadelphia
rates fall well within the range of data from other regions of the country.
IS HOMELESSNESS INCREASING?
One limited measure of the growth in homelessness is the increase in the
number of shelter beds over time. A 1991 study examined homelessness "rates"
(the number of shelter beds in a city divided by the city's population)
in 182 U.S. cities with populations over 100,000. The study found that
homelessness rates tripled between 1981 and 1989 for the 182 cities as
a group (Burt, 1997).
A
1997 review of research conducted over the past decade (1987-1997) in
11 communities and 4 states found that shelter capacity more than doubled
in nine communities and three states during that time period (National
Coalition for the Homeless, 1997). In two communities and two states,
shelter capacity tripled over the decade.
These
numbers are useful for measuring the growth in demand for shelter beds
(and the resources made available to respond to that growth) over time.
They indicate a dramatic increase in homelessness in the United States
over the past two decades.
CONCLUSION
By its very nature, homelessness is impossible to measure with 100% accuracy.
More important than knowing the precise number of people who experience
homelessness is our progress in ending it. Recent studies suggest that
the United States generates homelessness at a much higher rate than previously
thought. Our task in ending homelessness is thus more important now than
ever.
REFERENCES
Aron, Laudan Y. and Janet M. Fitchen. "Rural Homelessness: A Synopsis,"
in Homelessness in America, Oryx Press, 1996. Available for $43.50 from
the National Coalition for the Homeless, 1012 14th Street, NW, Suite 600,
Washington, DC 20005; 202/737-6444.
Burt,
Martha and Barbara Cohen. America's Homeless: Numbers, Characteristics,
and Programs that Serve Them, 1989. Available for $9.75 from The Urban
Institute, 2100 M St. NW, Washington, DC 20037-1264, 202/833-7200.
Burt,
Martha. "Causes of the Growth of Homelessness During the 1980s,"
in Understanding Homelessness: New Policy and Research Perspectives, Fannie
Mae Foundation, 1991, 1997. Available, free, from the Fannie Mae Foundation,
4000 Wisconsin Avenue, NW, North Tower, Suite One, Washington, DC 20016-2804;
202-274-8074 or email: fmfpubs@fanniemaefoundation.org.
Burt,
Martha. Developing the Estimate of 500,000-600,000 Homeless People in
1987, 1991. Available, free, from The Urban Institute, 2100 M St. NW,
Washington, DC 20037-1264, 202/833-7200.
Burt,
Martha. Practical Methods for Counting Homeless People: A Manual for States
and Local Jurisdictions, Second Edition, 1996. Available for $13.50 from
The Urban Institute, Publications Sales Office, P.O. Box 7273, Department
C, Washington, DC 20044; 202/857-8687.
Culhane,
Dennis et al. "Public Shelter Admission Rates in Philadelphia and
New York City: Implications of Turnover for Sheltered Population Counts,"
in Housing Policy Debate, 5(1994)2: 107-140. Available, free, from the
Fannie Mae Office of Housing Research, 3900 Wisconsin Ave. NW, Washington,
DC 20016; 202/752-7761.
Interagency
Council on the Homeless, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Priority: Home! The Federal Plan to Break the Cycle of Homelessness, 1994.
Available, free, from Community Connections, P.O. Box 7189, Gaithersburg,
MD 20898-7189; 800/998-9999.
Link, Bruce et al. "Life-time and Five-Year Prevalence of Homelessness
in the United States" in American Journal of Public Health, (December
1994). Available from Dr. Bruce Link, Columbia University, 100 Haven Ave.,
Apt. 31-D, New York, NY 10032-2626; 212/0631.
Link,
Bruce et al. "Life-time and Five-Year Prevalence of Homelessness
in the United States: New Evidence on an Old Debate," in American
Journal of Orthopsychiatry, 65 (July 1995) 3: 347-354. Dr. Bruce Link,
Columbia University, 100 Haven Ave., Apt. 31-D, New York, NY 10032-2626;
212/0631.
National
Coalition for the Homeless. Homelessness in America: Unabated and Increasing,
1997. Available for $6.25 from the National Coalition for the Homeless,
1012 14th Street, NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC 20005; 202/737-6444.
National
Law Center on Homelessness and Poverty. Out of Sight - Out of Mind? A
Report on Anti-Homeless Laws, Litigation, and Alternatives in 50 United
States Cities, 1999. Available for $28 from the National Law Center on
Homelessness and Poverty, 918 F Street, NW, Suite 412, Washington, DC
20004-1406; 202/638-2535.
U.S.
Conference of Mayors. A Status Report on Hunger and Homelessness in America's
Cities: 1998. Available for $15.00 from the U.S. Conference of Mayors,
1620 Eye St., NW, 4th Floor, Washington, DC, 20006-4005, 202/293-7330.
Wright,
James D. Evaluation Review (v.16, n.2), 1992. Available for $17.00 from
Sage Publications, 2455 Teller Rd., Thousand Oaks, CA 91320; 805/499-0721.
Last
updated - February 1999 - National Coalition for the Homeless
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