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How Many Ohioans Experience Homelessness?
It profits us nothing as a nation to wall off homelessness as a novel
social problem made up of a distinctly "different" population.
Nor is it something that requires separate and distinctive mechanisms
of redress, isolated from mainstream programs. In fact, the more we understand
about the root causes of homelessness, the greater our sense of having
been here before.
Each and every week the Coalition on Homelessness and Housing in Ohio
(COHHIO) receives countless calls from individuals and organizations,
requesting information on the number of homeless individuals and families
in the state. For many, this information is crucial in terms of funding
for not only housing, but for much needed supportive services as well.
The information contained in this report will allow us to provide individuals
and organizations with plausible data regarding the magnitude and severity
of homelessness throughout the state.
Is there an absolute scientific methodology that can tell you the number
of homeless persons in the State of Ohio? No. As the National Coalition
for the Homeless (NCH) pointed out, homelessness by its very nature “is
impossible to measure with 100% accuracy. More important than knowing
the precise number of people who experience homelessness is our progress
toward ending it.”
For nearly twenty years, we as a nation have tried time and again to accurately
count our homeless. These attempts have encountered many “bumps
along the way” including how you define homelessness, your sampling
framework, the accuracy of the numbers, and flaws with the methodology.
Our intent with this information is to offer accurate, plausible, and
responsible information pertaining to the estimated number and characteristics
of homeless Ohioans.
This analysis, not unlike many others designed to estimate the number
of homeless persons, was completed with two primary constraints in mind;
the definition of homelessness and the methodology used to measure homelessness.
Determining who you are going to count and how you are going to count
them is incredibly important if your results are to be meaningful.
Arbitrarily defining who is “homeless” and who is not for
the purposes of enumeration has proven to be incredibly challenging. The
end result is a direct correlate of how you define homelessness. Depending
upon the scope of your definition (broad versus narrow), the end result
can include those at risk of homelessness and those doubled-up, or those
literally on the streets. This debate continues, with homeless advocates
believing that the number of homeless in this country is significantly
underestimated by government officials. These same government officials
and many social scientists argue that the advocates massively inflate
their numbers, do not control for duplication in reporting, and have no
hard data to back-up their claims.
Measuring homelessness is about as easy as getting Democrats and Republicans
to agree on campaign finance reform. Depending upon who you ask, the “problem”
is either non-existent, or it pervades every fiber of our society. Typically,
there are two (2) methods used to measure homelessness. A point-in-time
estimate attempts to count all people in a geographic area that are literally
homeless on a given day or during a given week. A period prevalence (annual)
estimate attempts to count all people in a geographic area that are homeless
over a given period of time.
As with the definition of homelessness, there are pros and cons with each
methodology. While the point-in-time count offers a “snapshot,”
it counts only those who are homeless at a particular time. It does not,
however, take into account that the homeless population changes over time.
In that sense, the homeless population is dynamic or fluid. While some
people find housing and are able to exit the “revolving door”
of homelessness, others lose their housing and find themselves entering
the “revolving door.”
Annual counts on the other hand, do account for the fluidity of the homeless
population by protracting the window so-to-speak, and examining homelessness
over an extended period of time. They are, however, both cost and labor
intensive to carry out. Studies completed only in the last year have used
sophisticated local systems to yield new insights into the dynamics of
homelessness by measuring turnover in shelters. These new studies suggest
that the number of individuals and families who experience at least one
episode of homelessness during longer intervals may exceed the best estimates
of snapshot street and shelter counts by a factor of ten or more.
Homelessness Defined
For the purposes of this report, persons are considered homeless if they
reside:
- in places not meant for human habitation, such as cars, parks, sidewalks,
and abandoned buildings; or
- in an emergency shelter.
While the scope of this definition is relatively narrow, it serves as
the foundation for determining the magnitude of homelessness in the state.
Like most studies that attempt to accurately count the homeless population,
we have opted to focus solely on those persons that are literally homeless
- that is, they are living in shelters or on the streets. One potential
limitation of this definition pertains to the underestimation of the overall
number of homeless persons. Those living in unstable housing environments
who lack a permanent place to stay are experiencing a certain kind of
homelessness, but because they are not “literally homeless,”
they were not counted.
Methodology
There are as many ways to count the homeless, as there are people that
experience homelessness. You can create hypothetical time-lines, complex
scientific formulas and equations, and account for external factors such
as the weather. Or you can use a common, unscientific "quick and
dirty" estimation of some percentage of the total population being
homeless during any given, undefined time period. After spending considerable
time trying to determine which methodology we would use, we opted for
the “common, unscientific” approach.
As a starting point, we requested local Continuum of Care information
from the state’s larger urban areas (Akron, Canton, Cincinnati,
Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown) and from the smaller
cities/rural counties (Balance of State). The information collected from
both the point-in-time homeless estimates, and the gaps analysis sections
proved beneficial, and served as the “benchmark,” against
which our figures were measured.
From there, we looked at population figures in an attempt to find any
discernable patterns. We examined data from the United States Bureau of
the Census with respect to the country’s total population and that
of Ohio and its counties. In 2001, the United States had an estimated
population of 285 million, with Ohio accounting for just over 11 million.
We also examined data from the National Coalition for the Homeless and
the National Law Center on Homelessness and Poverty pertaining to estimates
of homelessness. In terms of a point-in-time estimate, there appears to
be some consensus that as many as 700,000 Americans are homeless on any
given night. With respect to annualized counts, the estimates range from
as few as 2 million to as many as 7 million Americans homeless throughout
the course of a year.
In addition, research examining shelter turnover in both New York City
and Philadelphia indicates that as much as three percent of each city’s
total population used the public shelter system in the late 1980’s
and early 1990’s.
To
determine the estimated annual homeless population:
As just reported, between 2 million and 7 million people in this country
experience homelessness in any given year. The average of those figures
is 4.5 million. The country's estimated population for 2001 was 285 million.
If you divide the estimated homeless population (4.5 million) by the total
population (285 million), you can estimate that approximately 1.58 percent
of the country's total population experienced homelessness in 2001. If
you apply that rationale to Ohio's total population (11,374,541), you
can surmise that an estimated 179,718 Ohioans experienced homelessness
in 2001.
To determine the estimated point-in-time homeless population:
As just reported, approximately 700,000 homeless people in this country
on any given night are homeless. The country's total population for 2001
was 285 million. If you divide the estimated point-in-time homeless figure
(700,000) by the total population (285 million), you can estimate that
approximately .00245 percent of the country's total population experienced
homelessness on any given night in 2001. If you apply that rationale to
Ohio's total population (11, 374,541), you can estimate that 27,867 Ohioans
experienced homelessness on any given night in 2001.
As with any attempted enumeration of the homeless, the end result is only
as good as the data you utilize and the methods you employ. Again, please
keep in mind that this analysis offers estimations only. The information
contained herein represents our “best guess” as to the scope
and magnitude of homelessness in the State of Ohio.
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